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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–20 on winners spread MAE 8.9 63 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
California @ USC	+11.5	134.2	87%	72–79	✓
UAB @ Marshall	-9.6	152.6	17%	81–84	✗
Charlotte @ Old Dominion	+2.3	137.8	57%	52–68	✓
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount	+1.5	138.6	59%	69–65	✗
Santa Clara @ San Francisco	+7.1	150.9	77%	85–88	✓
UAlbany @ NJIT	-0.8	130.4	42%	64–53	✓
Jacksonville State @ Liberty	+7.4	138.3	75%	77–67	✗
Bellarmine @ Florida Gulf Coast	+1.3	145.1	57%	74–63	✗
Green Bay @ Robert Morris	+3.2	137.1	65%	60–62	✓
South Alabama @ Troy	-1.8	139.4	42%	68–77	✗
UNC Greensboro @ Wofford	+6.4	133.0	74%	66–85	✓
Hofstra @ UNC Wilmington	-1.8	146.0	43%	72–78	✗
Houston @ UCF	-10.3	141.4	18%	63–49	✓
Tennessee @ Texas	+3.2	128.9	62%	51–52	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama State	+2.8	133.6	63%	73–79	✓
South Florida @ Tulsa	+3.2	132.4	63%	45–76	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Riverside	+0.4	132.5	53%	54–67	✓
Nicholls @ Houston Christian	-7.1	145.7	21%	73–61	✓
Tarleton State @ UT Rio Grande Valley	-2.0	145.6	43%	79–64	✓
Pepperdine @ Saint Mary's	+16.5	133.6	91%	57–81	✓
Wake Forest @ Syracuse	-3.5	154.6	34%	72–94	✗
Georgia Southern @ Louisiana	+4.1	136.9	68%	66–65	✗
Evansville @ Missouri State	+16.6	135.8	91%	58–72	✓
Kansas City @ Omaha	-7.1	144.7	21%	68–69	✗
Austin Peay @ Tennessee Tech	+3.9	142.0	66%	58–55	✗
South Carolina @ Texas A&M	+6.6	134.6	74%	74–63	✗
Portland @ Gonzaga	+20.7	157.9	90%	72–104	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine	+9.9	126.2	83%	48–72	✓
Florida International @ UTEP	+5.6	132.8	72%	68–79	✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana	+3.3	143.5	69%	59–61	✓
Grand Canyon @ New Mexico State	+3.2	136.6	68%	61–71	✓
Stanford @ UCLA	+12.8	143.1	87%	43–66	✓
BYU @ Pacific	-13.7	138.8	14%	73–76	✗
Oregon State @ Oregon	+12.9	151.5	88%	56–78	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC San Diego	+1.5	131.2	57%	75–83	✓
Weber State @ Sacramento State	-8.0	143.1	23%	79–59	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ California Baptist	+0.3	141.9	52%	81–77	✗
Utah State @ Nevada	-2.2	149.2	40%	78–49	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Hawai'i	+4.2	138.8	73%	62–65	✓
Cornell @ Brown	+4.0	149.6	66%	74–72	✗
Ohio State @ Purdue	+9.5	156.0	81%	78–81	✓
Cincinnati @ East Carolina	-3.8	141.6	34%	60–59	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Wright State	+3.0	145.6	66%	63–75	✓
Cleveland State @ Northern Kentucky	-1.2	135.7	40%	72–78	✗
Fordham @ George Washington	-1.8	136.7	43%	55–64	✗
Marquette @ Providence	+3.3	142.1	63%	63–65	✓
Minnesota @ Wisconsin	+8.1	140.3	81%	60–66	✓
Central Connecticut @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+0.4	136.9	48%	55–75	✓
Long Island University @ Bryant	+4.6	154.5	70%	81–88	✓
Saint Peter's @ Iona	+12.6	139.3	87%	77–85	✓
Delaware State @ Morgan State	+11.7	140.3	87%	70–82	✓
Wagner @ St. Francis Brooklyn	-12.4	143.6	14%	72–69	✓
Loyola Chicago @ Drake	-3.0	139.7	37%	68–77	✗
Indiana State @ Bradley	+7.8	140.6	80%	52–67	✓
George Mason @ Massachusetts	-1.8	148.8	42%	72–62	✓
Quinnipiac @ Siena	+0.8	141.5	54%	76–85	✓
Marist @ Manhattan	-1.4	144.2	47%	66–72	✗
Niagara @ Monmouth	+7.0	136.8	78%	70–69	✗
Canisius @ Rider	+0.5	136.5	51%	62–70	✓
Pittsburgh @ Boston College	+4.0	129.5	66%	56–69	✓
Valparaiso @ Southern Illinois	+4.2	130.3	67%	55–77	✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell	-5.2	139.2	29%	80–82	✗
LSU New Orleans @ McNeese	-0.0	147.7	48%	84–78	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.