Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +3 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -10.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -8.8 (-5.8) | 148.8 (+10.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -9.5 (-6.5) | 156.0 (+3.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -9.4 (-6.4) | 154.8 (+4.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -9.9 (-6.9) | 151.6 (+7.4) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | OSU 82 – 74 PUR |
| Jan 22, 2025 | OSU 73 – 70 PUR |
| Feb 18, 2024 | OSU 73 – 69 PUR |
| Mar 11, 2023 | PUR 80 – 66 OSU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | PUR 82 – 55 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 19.5 (#6) | 12.0 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#10) | 2.89 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.21 (#12) | 3.63 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#22) | 0.630 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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