Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | DRKE +115 LUC -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -3.7 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -0.6 (+9.6) | 135.3 (+9.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -3.0 (+12.0) | 139.7 (+5.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -2.6 (+11.6) | 139.4 (+5.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -2.3 (+11.3) | 138.9 (+6.1) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2022 | LUC 64 – 58 DRKE |
| Feb 19, 2022 | DRKE 83 – 76 LUC |
| Mar 7, 2021 | LUC 75 – 65 DRKE |
| Feb 14, 2021 | DRKE 51 – 50 LUC |
| Feb 13, 2021 | LUC 81 – 54 DRKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-6 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 61.9 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#92) | 12.7 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#122) | 2.38 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#126) | 2.85 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#127) | 0.589 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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