Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | DRKE +170 LUC -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +27 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -0.5 (-26.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -1.1 (-28.1) | 128.6 (+6.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -2.3 (-29.3) | 137.8 (-2.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -1.8 (-28.8) | 137.5 (-2.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -1.9 (-28.9) | 136.0 (-1.0) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2022 | LUC 64 – 58 DRKE |
| Feb 19, 2022 | DRKE 83 – 76 LUC |
| Jan 30, 2022 | DRKE 77 – 68 LUC |
| Mar 7, 2021 | LUC 75 – 65 DRKE |
| Feb 14, 2021 | DRKE 51 – 50 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-5 | 26-5 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-0 |
| Away | 9-2 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.8 | 56.4 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#33) | 15.0 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#19) | 2.06 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#46) | 2.68 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#87) | 0.581 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 51.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 78.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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