Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
| Money | DRKE +205 LUC -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +6 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -6.1 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -4.1 (-1.9) | 130.5 (-8.5) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -5.2 (-0.8) | 134.6 (-12.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -4.4 (-1.6) | 132.1 (-10.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -4.5 (-1.5) | 132.6 (-10.6) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2022 | DRKE 83 – 76 LUC |
| Jan 30, 2022 | DRKE 77 – 68 LUC |
| Mar 7, 2021 | LUC 75 – 65 DRKE |
| Feb 14, 2021 | DRKE 51 – 50 LUC |
| Feb 13, 2021 | LUC 81 – 54 DRKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-6 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 61.9 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#83) | 13.2 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#97) | 1.72 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#100) | 2.12 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#99) | 0.579 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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