Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -400 DRKE +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -4.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -2.9 (+7.1) | 126.7 (+13.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -3.5 (+6.5) | 130.8 (+9.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -3.5 (+6.5) | 128.9 (+11.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -3.2 (+6.8) | 129.0 (+11.0) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2022 | LUC 64 – 58 DRKE |
| Feb 19, 2022 | DRKE 83 – 76 LUC |
| Jan 30, 2022 | DRKE 77 – 68 LUC |
| Feb 14, 2021 | DRKE 51 – 50 LUC |
| Feb 13, 2021 | LUC 81 – 54 DRKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-5 | 26-5 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-0 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-3 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.4 | 64.8 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#18) | 10.1 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#31) | 2.15 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#30) | 1.96 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#31) | 0.555 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 79.1% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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