Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +22 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -6.4 (+15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -3.9 (+18.1) | 124.6 (+7.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -4.2 (+17.8) | 130.3 (+1.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -4.1 (+17.9) | 130.5 (+1.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -4.3 (+17.7) | 126.7 (+5.3) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | VAL 69 – 63 SIU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SIU 75 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | VAL 83 – 79 SIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SIU 79 – 75 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SIU 75 – 69 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#128) | -1.2 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#209) | -0.49 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#198) | -0.57 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#238) | 0.473 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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