Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +14 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -21.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -17.0 (-3.0) | 133.3 (-3.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -16.6 (-2.6) | 135.8 (-5.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -18.5 (-4.5) | 136.1 (-6.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -18.1 (-4.1) | 135.8 (-5.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2025 | MOST 71 – 54 EVAN |
| Dec 29, 2024 | EVAN 57 – 40 MOST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MOST 74 – 64 EVAN |
| Nov 30, 2023 | MOST 90 – 78 EVAN |
| Feb 12, 2023 | MOST 66 – 60 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 6-24 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 2-16 |
| Home | 12-4 | 4-9 |
| Away | 8-5 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 58.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#54) | -9.1 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#116) | -1.85 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#85) | -2.01 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#94) | 0.415 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 18.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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