Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +15 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -8.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -6.7 (+8.3) | 139.9 (-20.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -7.8 (+7.2) | 140.6 (-21.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -8.2 (+6.8) | 140.6 (-21.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -8.0 (+7.0) | 140.6 (-21.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | BRAD 75 – 68 INST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | BRAD 108 – 99 INST |
| Jan 16, 2025 | BRAD 118 – 65 INST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | BRAD 90 – 89 INST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | INST 95 – 86 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#97) | 0.1 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#188) | -0.47 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#172) | -0.49 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#176) | 0.472 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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