Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +6 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -2.6 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -2.4 (+8.4) | 140.6 (-2.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -1.4 (+7.4) | 144.2 (-6.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -1.6 (+7.6) | 143.7 (-5.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -1.6 (+7.6) | 144.3 (-6.3) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MRST 84 – 70 MAN |
| Dec 7, 2025 | MRST 80 – 68 MAN |
| Dec 8, 2024 | MRST 82 – 75 MAN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MRST 57 – 50 MAN |
| Dec 3, 2023 | MRST 70 – 56 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#276) | -0.3 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#186) | -0.85 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#211) | -0.77 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#186) | 0.469 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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