Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
| Money | MRSH +425 UAB -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +3 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -11.9 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -8.9 (+11.9) | 150.8 (+14.2) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -9.6 (+12.6) | 152.6 (+12.4) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -9.7 (+12.7) | 151.1 (+13.9) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -10.2 (+13.2) | 153.7 (+11.3) | 17% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Game Analysis
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