Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +2 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -1.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -3.3 (-1.3) | 143.0 (-15.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -3.3 (-1.3) | 142.1 (-14.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -1.7 (+0.3) | 141.7 (-13.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -2.4 (-0.4) | 140.5 (-12.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MARQ 78 – 56 PROV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MARQ 105 – 104 PROV |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MARQ 82 – 52 PROV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | MARQ 78 – 50 PROV |
| Mar 16, 2024 | MARQ 79 – 68 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 11-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#53) | 11.0 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.91 (#2) | 2.83 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.09 (#13) | 3.26 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#5) | 0.613 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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