Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +31 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -4.6 (+26.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -3.8 (+27.2) | 129.0 (-8.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -3.2 (+27.8) | 132.4 (-11.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -2.8 (+28.2) | 132.8 (-11.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -4.1 (+26.9) | 132.1 (-11.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | USF 80 – 74 TLSA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | USF 93 – 78 TLSA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USF 63 – 56 TLSA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TLSA 76 – 70 USF |
| Feb 15, 2024 | USF 69 – 50 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 3-15 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-10 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 57.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#178) | -1.8 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#232) | -0.60 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#209) | -0.38 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#263) | 0.463 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 25.1% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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