Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +13 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -1.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -2.1 (+10.9) | 130.4 (-9.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -0.4 (+12.6) | 132.5 (-11.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -0.3 (+12.7) | 133.6 (-12.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -0.5 (+13.5) | 133.2 (-12.2) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | CSUF 78 – 72 UCR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UCR 81 – 72 CSUF |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCR 64 – 59 CSUF |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCR 75 – 68 CSUF |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UCR 84 – 74 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-12 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 9-6 | 11-4 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.3 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#155) | 1.9 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#138) | 0.60 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#158) | 0.64 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#145) | 0.520 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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