Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | USA -2.2 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -2.8 (+11.8) | 138.0 (+7.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -1.8 (+10.8) | 139.4 (+5.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -2.0 (+11.0) | 139.3 (+5.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -2.1 (+11.1) | 139.3 (+5.7) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | USA 65 – 54 TROY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TROY 59 – 49 USA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TROY 65 – 55 USA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USA 64 – 63 TROY |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TROY 83 – 79 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 65.7 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#204) | 3.9 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#140) | 0.96 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#132) | 1.15 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#162) | 0.563 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.