Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -20.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +24 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -22.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -15.0 (+9.0) | 135.4 (+2.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -16.5 (+7.5) | 133.6 (+4.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -18.5 (+5.5) | 134.2 (+3.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -18.5 (+5.5) | 134.8 (+3.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SMC 88 – 60 PEPP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SMC 72 – 45 PEPP |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SMC 74 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SMC 74 – 50 PEPP |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SMC 71 – 41 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 1-15 |
| Home | 16-0 | 7-9 |
| Away | 6-4 | 0-13 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.3 | 77.8 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#28) | -7.2 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#25) | -1.43 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#30) | -1.66 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#9) | 0.431 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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