Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +9 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -2.1 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -1.6 (+10.6) | 138.7 (-19.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -1.8 (+10.8) | 136.7 (-17.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -1.8 (+10.8) | 137.5 (-18.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -2.0 (+11.0) | 139.6 (-20.6) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | GW 66 – 62 FOR |
| Jan 31, 2026 | FOR 79 – 65 GW |
| Mar 13, 2025 | GW 88 – 81 FOR |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GW 81 – 58 FOR |
| Jan 4, 2024 | FOR 119 – 113 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#267) | -0.4 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#252) | -0.15 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#269) | -0.02 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#246) | 0.487 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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