Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +12 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MORG -13.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -11.9 (+0.1) | 140.1 (+11.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -11.7 (+0.3) | 140.3 (+11.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -10.8 (+1.2) | 142.9 (+9.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -10.7 (+1.3) | 141.0 (+11.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | DSU 75 – 70 MORG |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MORG 82 – 68 DSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MORG 80 – 79 DSU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | MORG 87 – 81 DSU |
| Feb 4, 2025 | DSU 84 – 82 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-15 | 2-26 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 0-14 |
| Home | 8-3 | 2-11 |
| Away | 3-9 | 0-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L25 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 60.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#339) | -23.1 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#329) | -4.57 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.67 (#331) | -6.22 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#315) | 0.365 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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