Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +2 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -4.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -4.5 (+6.5) | 137.9 (+24.1) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -5.2 (+7.2) | 139.2 (+22.8) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -5.4 (+7.4) | 140.5 (+21.5) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -4.9 (+6.9) | 140.3 (+21.7) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | L-MD 67 – 62 BUCK |
| Jan 10, 2026 | BUCK 70 – 67 L-MD |
| Mar 7, 2025 | BUCK 76 – 72 L-MD |
| Feb 27, 2025 | BUCK 70 – 67 L-MD |
| Jan 30, 2025 | BUCK 79 – 67 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-3 |
| Away | 2-15 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#337) | -5.0 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#337) | -0.59 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.02 (#341) | -1.00 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.377 (#343) | 0.465 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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