Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +4 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -0.6 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -1.3 (-2.7) | 141.5 (+16.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CBU -0.3 (-4.3) | 141.9 (+16.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -0.4 (-3.6) | 142.7 (+15.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CBU -0.0 (-4.0) | 144.2 (+13.8) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2024 | SFA 62 – 60 CBU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | CBU 81 – 79 SFA |
| Feb 27, 2023 | SFA 80 – 58 CBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CBU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#224) | 1.1 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#208) | 0.33 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#220) | 0.27 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#239) | 0.521 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CBU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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