Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +14 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -11.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-27.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -9.4 (-4.6) | 136.2 (-24.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -10.3 (-3.7) | 141.4 (-29.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -9.7 (-4.3) | 140.3 (-28.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -9.6 (-4.4) | 139.9 (-27.9) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | HOU 79 – 55 UCF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | HOU 69 – 68 UCF |
| Mar 7, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 UCF |
| Jan 20, 2024 | HOU 57 – 42 UCF |
| Jan 26, 2023 | HOU 82 – 71 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 9-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 58.8 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#85) | 20.9 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#76) | 3.08 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#77) | 4.27 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#84) | 0.637 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 42.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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