Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +15 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -1.8 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -2.4 (-12.6) | 142.9 (+0.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -2.0 (-13.0) | 145.6 (-2.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -1.8 (-13.2) | 145.6 (-2.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -2.8 (-12.2) | 144.1 (-1.1) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2024 | TAR 77 – 73 RGV |
| Dec 2, 2023 | TAR 77 – 75 RGV |
| Mar 8, 2023 | TAR 74 – 70 RGV |
| Feb 26, 2023 | RGV 99 – 95 TAR |
| Feb 4, 2023 | RGV 68 – 65 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 4-9 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#269) | -0.8 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#295) | -0.40 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#280) | -0.06 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#233) | 0.496 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 25.0% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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