Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +6 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | MCN -0.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -0.7 (-6.7) | 150.7 (+11.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -0.0 (-6.0) | 147.7 (+14.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -0.3 (-5.7) | 150.3 (+11.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -0.6 (-5.4) | 150.9 (+11.1) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MCN 66 – 63 NOLA |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MCN 82 – 63 NOLA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MCN 78 – 64 NOLA |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MCN 86 – 61 NOLA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MCN 81 – 57 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 10-4 |
| Home | 6-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 76.7 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#297) | -5.4 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#300) | -0.79 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#292) | -0.94 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#257) | 0.449 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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