Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +3 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -4.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -3.3 (-0.3) | 135.0 (-8.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -4.2 (-1.2) | 138.8 (-11.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -4.1 (-1.1) | 138.1 (-11.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -4.1 (-1.1) | 136.0 (-9.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | HAW 78 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UCSB 77 – 62 HAW |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCSB 76 – 72 HAW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | UCSB 64 – 61 HAW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCSB 77 – 71 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-11 | 17-11 |
| Conference | 10-5 | 8-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#145) | -0.0 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#176) | -1.20 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#162) | -1.22 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#203) | 0.419 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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