Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW +165 HOF -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +6 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | HOF -4.4 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -2.3 (+8.3) | 144.7 (+5.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -1.8 (+7.8) | 146.0 (+4.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -2.3 (+8.3) | 146.5 (+3.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -2.6 (+8.6) | 146.8 (+3.2) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNCW 70 – 66 HOF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOF 66 – 63 UNCW |
| Mar 1, 2024 | HOF 69 – 58 UNCW |
| Mar 6, 2023 | UNCW 79 – 73 HOF |
| Jan 20, 2023 | HOF 70 – 46 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 9-5 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#227) | 4.6 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#129) | 1.30 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#167) | 1.60 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#121) | 0.593 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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