Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -5.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -2.1 (+3.9) | 134.6 (+17.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -2.8 (+3.2) | 133.6 (+18.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -3.4 (+2.6) | 134.2 (+17.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -2.9 (+3.1) | 136.6 (+15.4) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | BCU 82 – 71 ALST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | BCU 69 – 54 ALST |
| Feb 25, 2025 | BCU 70 – 68 ALST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BCU 67 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 27, 2024 | BCU 90 – 84 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-6 | 4-6 |
| Away | 3-15 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#305) | -11.2 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#336) | -2.12 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.81 (#335) | -2.54 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#339) | 0.385 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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