Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +9 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -9.9 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -6.2 (-2.8) | 141.3 (-2.3) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -7.4 (-1.6) | 142.0 (-3.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -7.8 (-1.2) | 141.8 (-2.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -7.2 (-1.8) | 143.0 (-4.0) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | DUKE 83 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DUKE 84 – 73 LOU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | DUKE 73 – 62 LOU |
| Dec 8, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 65 LOU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 59 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 16-4 |
| Home | 8-8 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#114) | 17.1 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#119) | 2.80 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#120) | 4.12 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#101) | 0.616 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 11.6% |
Game Analysis
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