Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LBSU +7 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -2.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -0.8 (-7.8) | 142.1 (-9.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -0.3 (-7.3) | 143.6 (-10.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -0.7 (-7.7) | 145.9 (-12.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -0.5 (-7.5) | 143.5 (-10.5) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UCD 76 – 70 LBSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UCD 71 – 54 LBSU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCD 73 – 65 LBSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LBSU 84 – 73 UCD |
| Mar 17, 2024 | LBSU 74 – 70 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 5-6 | 12-3 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#224) | -1.6 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#228) | 0.05 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#234) | 0.24 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#258) | 0.519 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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