Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +6 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | UAPB -1.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MVSU -0.5 (-6.5) | 146.4 (-4.4) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -1.1 (-4.9) | 145.4 (-3.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -0.5 (-5.5) | 144.1 (-2.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -1.1 (-4.9) | 145.0 (-3.0) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MVSU 70 – 69 UAPB |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UAPB 78 – 70 MVSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UAPB 83 – 58 MVSU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MVSU 79 – 76 UAPB |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UAPB 78 – 69 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-26 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 5-13 |
| Home | 0-11 | 5-7 |
| Away | 2-15 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.0 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -21.3 (#357) | -16.9 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.77 (#356) | -3.02 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.92 (#356) | -3.99 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.342 (#354) | 0.384 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.9% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 28.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.9% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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