Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -3.0 Push |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | NU +130 ILL -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +3 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -4.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-34.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -4.0 (+1.0) | 144.0 (-29.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -3.0 (-0.0) | 147.6 (-32.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -3.5 (+0.5) | 146.4 (-31.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -2.0 (-1.0) | 149.0 (-34.0) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ILL 84 – 44 NU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | ILL 79 – 68 NU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ILL 83 – 74 NU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NU 70 – 66 ILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | NU 96 – 91 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#68) | 16.0 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#109) | 2.42 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#104) | 2.90 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#150) | 0.607 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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