Betting Lines
| Spread | CCU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +7 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | CCU -6.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -4.3 (-11.3) | 139.0 (+0.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -3.6 (-10.6) | 140.1 (-1.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -3.5 (-10.5) | 139.4 (-0.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -3.5 (-10.5) | 138.5 (+0.5) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ARST 70 – 66 CCU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | ARST 97 – 67 CCU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ARST 71 – 60 CCU |
| Feb 28, 2023 | ARST 86 – 69 CCU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ARST 73 – 57 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 8-7 |
| Home | 13-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#140) | -1.3 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#161) | 0.77 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#151) | 0.75 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#167) | 0.528 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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