Betting Lines
| Spread | VMI -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +4 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | VMI -5.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VMI -3.1 (+0.9) | 153.8 (+8.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -3.9 (+0.1) | 152.9 (+9.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -3.9 (+0.1) | 155.0 (+7.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VMI -4.4 (-0.4) | 152.9 (+9.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ETSU 81 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 5, 2025 | ETSU 62 – 55 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2025 | ETSU 84 – 69 VMI |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 98 – 66 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#150) | -1.1 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#177) | 0.38 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#165) | 0.32 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#154) | 0.527 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 12.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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