Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
| Money | BUF -150 OHIO +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +21 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -2.4 (-23.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -1.6 (-22.6) | 147.9 (-20.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -1.2 (-22.2) | 149.3 (-22.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -1.2 (-22.2) | 151.1 (-24.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -0.8 (-21.8) | 150.1 (-23.1) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | OHIO 95 – 83 BUF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | OHIO 91 – 80 BUF |
| Jan 8, 2025 | OHIO 88 – 79 BUF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 66 BUF |
| Jan 31, 2024 | OHIO 91 – 70 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-11 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#118) | 4.5 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#152) | 2.07 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#131) | 2.27 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#134) | 0.581 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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