Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -6.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -6.5 (+2.5) | 140.4 (+4.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -7.0 (+2.0) | 141.1 (+3.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -6.9 (+2.1) | 141.6 (+3.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -7.0 (+2.0) | 142.0 (+3.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | WVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 17-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-4 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#34) | 8.4 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#49) | 2.29 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#45) | 2.83 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#52) | 0.593 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | WVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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