We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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79–39 on winners spread MAE 8.4 118 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Marquette @ Villanova -1.6 138.1 49% 66–81 ✗
Manhattan @ Iona +0.4 150.4 50% 60–65 ✓
Dayton @ Loyola Chicago -1.0 145.3 52% 72–76 ✗
Columbia @ Brown +4.8 149.9 71% 61–86 ✓
Cornell @ Yale +12.7 159.7 87% 88–92 ✓
Harvard @ Princeton +7.0 138.7 78% 71–76 ✓
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania -4.0 146.4 32% 75–88 ✗
Cleveland State @ Detroit Mercy -6.3 135.3 24% 73–65 ✓
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne +4.2 151.0 68% 66–80 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State +3.9 147.3 68% 80–76 ✗
Green Bay @ Robert Morris +12.0 143.3 88% 85–94 ✓
Niagara @ Siena +6.4 137.0 73% 60–94 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Mount St. Mary's +4.2 132.4 65% 58–69 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack +5.6 138.7 71% 60–59 ✗
Fairfield @ Rider +4.2 135.2 64% 69–49 ✗
Canisius @ Marist +12.0 131.3 88% 81–89 ✓
Michigan State @ Michigan +3.5 147.6 65% 75–62 ✗
Kent State @ Miami (OH) +0.6 143.8 56% 92–96 ✓
Milwaukee @ Youngstown State +1.5 150.6 53% 84–74 ✗
Tennessee @ Texas A&M +0.2 131.9 47% 77–69 ✗
Oregon @ Wisconsin +8.6 152.2 79% 77–73 ✗
Florida State @ Louisville +12.1 146.8 88% 81–89 ✓
TCU @ Cincinnati +5.9 133.4 68% 63–75 ✓
NJIT @ UMBC +7.7 150.1 76% 91–95 ✓
Charleston @ Drexel -0.2 142.8 47% 55–64 ✗
VMI @ Furman +10.4 141.3 87% 71–75 ✓
Richmond @ Saint Joseph's +12.1 135.8 86% 62–78 ✓
West Virginia @ Texas Tech +9.0 139.4 83% 51–73 ✓
Mississippi State @ Oklahoma -0.8 148.9 45% 87–93 ✗
Marshall @ App State +4.7 132.5 71% 69–59 ✗
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan -1.9 149.4 39% 86–57 ✓
Iowa State @ Houston +7.9 131.9 73% 59–68 ✓
Longwood @ UNC Asheville +3.1 155.2 68% 82–87 ✓
High Point @ Gardner-Webb -7.5 156.4 27% 90–67 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Charleston Southern +7.0 153.1 76% 79–69 ✗
Tulsa @ Rice +6.5 141.4 79% 50–71 ✓
Wake Forest @ NC State -1.9 136.6 46% 73–85 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Boston College -2.3 148.2 40% 54–69 ✗
Davidson @ Fordham -1.2 147.3 44% 80–69 ✓
Penn State @ Minnesota +2.0 142.2 56% 69–60 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Francis +0.8 146.3 56% 80–85 ✓
Wagner @ Chicago State -0.7 127.9 34% 64–52 ✓
Maine @ Binghamton -1.8 134.2 43% 69–71 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Hampton -1.9 142.3 44% 70–83 ✗
Towson @ Campbell +1.4 132.6 52% 76–67 ✗
Stony Brook @ North Carolina A&T +2.4 140.6 61% 72–73 ✓
North Dakota State @ North Dakota -5.6 156.3 29% 77–79 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer -3.1 140.9 36% 78–61 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Wofford +2.7 137.1 64% 73–68 ✗
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +16.3 146.3 90% 75–76 ✓
Tennessee State @ Tennessee Tech +0.2 151.6 49% 74–77 ✓
Florida International @ Liberty +15.5 136.5 88% 45–58 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame -2.7 143.9 41% 72–76 ✗
Rhode Island @ Saint Louis +2.2 146.4 66% 66–81 ✓
Buffalo @ Ball State +9.5 150.6 83% 66–80 ✓
Evansville @ UIC +8.4 139.2 80% 77–82 ✓
Fresno State @ Air Force -0.4 141.5 43% 69–72 ✗
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State +18.2 144.7 91% 70–95 ✓
Western Carolina @ Samford +15.7 153.4 89% 72–93 ✓
Sam Houston @ Middle Tennessee +5.4 150.2 73% 70–74 ✓
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt +1.1 152.6 58% 72–77 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Morehead State +2.6 128.2 47% 67–62 ✗
Georgia @ Auburn +14.9 150.8 89% 70–82 ✓
Clemson @ SMU +2.2 148.7 61% 79–69 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Kansas +13.7 147.8 88% 64–96 ✓
Baylor @ Colorado -6.2 141.0 31% 74–76 ✗
Virginia @ North Carolina +10.4 142.3 83% 66–81 ✓
George Mason @ VCU +7.6 133.5 77% 54–70 ✓
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure +5.9 130.8 74% 63–70 ✓
Howard @ Morgan State -0.6 161.6 44% 87–81 ✓
South Carolina State @ Delaware State -1.6 148.4 39% 94–88 ✓
San José State @ Wyoming +2.5 137.2 68% 82–73 ✗
Boston University @ American University +4.7 133.3 71% 44–48 ✓
Washington @ Iowa +6.7 157.8 78% 79–85 ✓
Alcorn State @ Jackson State +4.6 141.6 65% 63–71 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Nicholls +5.2 145.1 73% 84–93 ✓
Long Island University @ Le Moyne -1.6 140.4 39% 76–61 ✓
Stonehill @ Central Connecticut +9.6 135.3 84% 41–67 ✓
Portland State @ Weber State -2.9 139.2 41% 58–60 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona +2.2 142.0 63% 67–87 ✓
Georgia Southern @ James Madison +8.8 147.3 82% 73–78 ✓
Hofstra @ Delaware +1.5 142.2 50% 78–65 ✗
Seattle U @ Utah Valley +5.8 141.2 76% 55–61 ✓
Western Illinois @ Little Rock +10.7 137.0 85% 61–75 ✓
Presbyterian @ Radford +6.6 140.9 76% 80–73 ✗
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -13.7 140.3 12% 79–63 ✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama State +3.9 144.8 71% 59–60 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Vermont +1.4 136.8 59% 61–85 ✓
East Texas A&M @ SE Louisiana +9.9 141.1 87% 65–83 ✓
Lamar @ Houston Christian -2.2 134.0 42% 66–58 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Troy +11.9 132.4 86% 66–83 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois -3.4 147.6 36% 79–76 ✓
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State +10.3 141.8 83% 58–74 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette +1.7 132.1 59% 70–78 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M -5.9 147.7 29% 68–64 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ McNeese +11.2 137.1 86% 57–73 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal Poly -0.5 160.7 45% 100–112 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Davis -3.7 144.2 34% 65–62 ✓
Oregon State @ San Diego -13.2 147.5 15% 83–73 ✓
UTEP @ Jacksonville State +3.5 138.9 67% 65–73 ✓
New Mexico State @ Kennesaw State +3.0 137.2 66% 60–49 ✗
Southern @ Grambling -3.7 132.0 31% 71–64 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Prairie View A&M +8.4 154.2 51% 75–64 ✗
South Alabama @ Texas State -0.6 141.3 47% 92–93 ✗
Florida @ LSU -8.5 150.3 22% 79–65 ✓
Massachusetts @ George Washington +6.7 142.0 76% 52–74 ✓
Murray State @ Bradley +8.0 138.8 79% 83–85 ✓
Indiana State @ Belmont +6.2 166.1 80% 75–77 ✓
Boise State @ Nevada +1.0 139.1 58% 70–69 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas Southern +22.9 133.4 91% 38–79 ✓
Cornell @ Brown +1.8 152.0 57% 85–81 ✗
Harvard @ Pennsylvania -0.0 142.6 50% 79–78 ✓
Northwestern State @ New Orleans -4.6 139.9 33% 73–66 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Incarnate Word +1.3 134.6 59% 61–63 ✓
Santa Clara @ Washington State -5.1 155.7 35% 109–79 ✓
Akron @ Ohio -1.3 161.2 48% 67–84 ✗
Kentucky @ Alabama +6.2 177.2 76% 83–96 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Miami +0.8 145.5 50% 81–68 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.