I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
← All models

Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
41–19 on winners spread MAE 8.6 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Valparaiso @ Southern Illinois +4.9 144.2 71% 83–79 ✗
Columbia @ Yale +16.4 160.1 89% 64–90 ✓
New Hampshire @ UAlbany +11.1 145.4 87% 71–60 ✗
Georgia State @ Old Dominion -0.3 152.1 47% 76–70 ✓
William & Mary @ Elon +4.0 146.7 68% 79–70 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Long Beach State -7.8 140.8 22% 58–56 ✓
Portland @ Pacific +3.5 147.9 64% 81–73 ✗
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian +6.7 142.8 79% 72–80 ✓
Duke @ Illinois -8.4 150.7 28% 110–67 ✓
Illinois State @ Missouri State -2.2 140.3 41% 70–68 ✓
San Diego State @ Utah State +5.7 140.7 77% 71–79 ✓
Dartmouth @ Princeton +3.5 143.8 63% 76–61 ✗
Sacramento State @ Idaho State +9.6 137.2 83% 66–83 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Colorado +9.7 156.2 84% 74–92 ✓
Butler @ DePaul -1.8 144.7 45% 84–72 ✓
Louisiana @ Southern Miss +3.1 145.6 64% 62–60 ✗
Tarleton State @ UT Arlington +6.0 136.4 71% 57–67 ✓
California Baptist @ Grand Canyon +7.9 146.2 80% 64–66 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Oral Roberts -8.2 157.7 22% 66–71 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky +2.1 144.9 62% 63–64 ✓
South Dakota @ Omaha +4.3 169.3 75% 85–93 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga +6.3 142.7 68% 74–67 ✗
Missouri @ Arkansas +1.0 148.1 62% 85–92 ✓
Texas @ South Carolina -3.2 143.0 43% 69–84 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Southern Indiana -5.8 138.6 24% 68–82 ✗
Montana @ Montana State +1.3 145.5 51% 89–85 ✗
Pepperdine @ Loyola Marymount +5.9 145.2 78% 82–93 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Bakersfield -7.4 138.5 23% 73–64 ✓
Colorado State @ UNLV +0.6 139.1 54% 61–53 ✗
California @ Stanford +5.3 148.2 72% 61–66 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC San Diego +16.3 138.9 88% 44–83 ✓
BYU @ Arizona +7.4 150.0 78% 96–95 ✗
UConn @ St. John's +6.6 139.8 80% 75–89 ✓
North Texas @ South Florida -6.4 131.9 18% 64–57 ✓
Army @ Bucknell +5.3 150.5 75% 53–84 ✓
Colgate @ Loyola Maryland -1.3 142.2 44% 65–84 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky +6.4 148.2 78% 67–71 ✓
Merrimack @ Iona -0.6 130.9 50% 77–70 ✓
Purdue @ Indiana -2.0 145.2 46% 58–73 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Memphis +10.8 161.4 85% 65–84 ✓
Tulane @ Wichita State +4.3 141.3 72% 67–78 ✓
UTSA @ East Carolina +4.9 148.7 69% 89–96 ✓
Temple @ UAB +5.9 163.1 74% 64–80 ✓
Holy Cross @ Navy +2.9 136.0 65% 77–83 ✓
Xavier @ Seton Hall -10.9 138.7 16% 73–66 ✓
Milwaukee @ Robert Morris +1.3 148.8 65% 59–72 ✓
Green Bay @ Youngstown State +12.1 150.8 87% 77–81 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State +11.3 144.1 86% 65–70 ✓
Canisius @ Siena +13.5 142.9 87% 93–88 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan +0.4 153.8 51% 74–71 ✗
Rider @ Mount St. Mary's +6.4 136.8 74% 72–79 ✓
Niagara @ Marist +7.0 133.9 79% 61–64 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Saint Peter's +0.8 138.6 51% 79–85 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland +0.3 137.1 52% 86–91 ✓
Ohio State @ UCLA +4.7 140.5 74% 61–69 ✓
Utah @ UCF +0.5 155.2 60% 72–76 ✓
Arizona State @ Kansas State +4.0 145.3 61% 66–54 ✗
Drake @ Northern Iowa +1.3 131.7 43% 64–58 ✗
Georgetown @ Creighton +9.2 143.0 81% 69–80 ✓
USC @ Rutgers +1.7 153.5 59% 85–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.