You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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74–33 on winners spread MAE 8.1 107 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northern Kentucky +0.8 138.5 54% 49–59 ✓
Rhode Island @ Dayton +5.5 128.6 69% 51–53 ✓
Fairfield @ Rider -2.9 135.7 45% 76–65 ✓
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +5.2 138.4 73% 51–77 ✓
Niagara @ Siena -1.3 132.5 47% 56–60 ✗
Ohio @ Buffalo +1.2 151.1 52% 74–53 ✗
Akron @ Toledo +10.7 139.3 85% 76–84 ✓
Marist @ Quinnipiac -0.2 141.5 51% 87–94 ✗
Cleveland State @ Wright State +0.2 152.0 45% 71–67 ✗
UNLV @ Colorado State +11.4 142.8 85% 88–74 ✗
San José State @ New Mexico +7.9 147.4 79% 70–86 ✓
Boise State @ Fresno State +0.9 125.1 44% 68–63 ✗
Duke @ Louisville -7.8 141.8 22% 74–65 ✓
LSU @ TCU -2.5 128.3 46% 68–77 ✗
La Salle @ Davidson +13.9 143.1 87% 69–77 ✓
Wichita State @ Tulane +1.4 140.3 58% 66–67 ✓
Georgetown @ Butler +5.2 139.7 75% 53–56 ✓
Miami @ Georgia Tech -3.7 145.0 34% 73–62 ✓
Michigan @ Michigan State +6.3 137.3 78% 67–83 ✓
Lafayette @ Army +5.0 140.6 69% 56–60 ✓
Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina +3.5 139.4 60% 73–66 ✗
East Tennessee State @ VMI +3.9 155.0 65% 79–83 ✓
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -8.4 145.4 20% 75–62 ✓
Oklahoma @ Auburn +11.0 141.1 84% 68–86 ✓
Xavier @ Creighton -1.2 136.8 48% 74–64 ✓
Missouri @ Iowa State +12.6 133.1 84% 50–67 ✓
American University @ Navy +13.3 133.2 86% 45–47 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UTSA -7.0 140.4 21% 73–64 ✓
High Point @ Campbell +5.4 130.5 70% 72–77 ✓
NC State @ North Carolina +8.0 153.5 81% 80–100 ✓
Dartmouth @ Columbia -6.3 142.7 26% 76–63 ✓
UMBC @ Binghamton -0.7 139.2 40% 70–68 ✓
Maine @ Vermont +26.9 140.1 91% 68–81 ✓
Milwaukee @ Youngstown State +5.1 141.5 68% 72–86 ✓
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa +5.2 155.2 74% 64–79 ✓
Saint Louis @ Duquesne -8.3 141.1 23% 77–53 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ St. Bonaventure +6.6 141.3 76% 69–80 ✓
Samford @ Western Carolina -0.7 152.1 45% 74–64 ✓
Drexel @ Towson +7.2 138.3 73% 62–66 ✓
West Virginia @ Arkansas +6.9 141.6 81% 68–77 ✓
Arizona State @ Arizona +22.9 147.2 91% 56–67 ✓
Indiana @ Maryland -1.2 142.2 48% 68–55 ✓
Temple @ SMU +8.2 138.4 77% 61–69 ✓
UT Martin @ Belmont +18.9 150.1 90% 58–87 ✓
Rice @ Southern Miss -5.7 144.1 24% 76–62 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky +1.3 142.3 54% 93–85 ✗
Utah Tech @ Chicago State -2.6 148.1 38% 79–65 ✓
Winthrop @ Longwood +5.4 148.2 71% 88–92 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Florida State +2.2 138.0 59% 85–72 ✗
UIC @ Oakland +12.7 147.7 87% 74–81 ✓
Georgia State @ UL Monroe +0.8 143.2 45% 73–62 ✗
St. Thomas @ Western Illinois +4.6 157.9 71% 52–81 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State +11.9 155.9 84% 76–80 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan +0.4 150.4 53% 75–85 ✓
Western Michigan @ Ball State +8.9 148.8 82% 72–83 ✓
Baylor @ Alabama -1.2 151.2 56% 78–87 ✗
Norfolk State @ South Carolina State -6.0 145.2 22% 87–69 ✓
Howard @ North Carolina Central -1.1 145.8 40% 75–74 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +0.7 145.9 53% 70–63 ✗
Southern @ Alcorn State -1.3 144.7 35% 64–68 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Coppin State +2.8 142.2 60% 64–61 ✗
North Texas @ Louisiana Tech +2.4 131.3 51% 63–62 ✗
Portland State @ Northern Arizona +2.8 141.9 59% 97–76 ✗
Kansas State @ Ole Miss -0.5 131.4 51% 56–67 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Northwestern State -7.3 147.3 23% 76–90 ✗
Sam Houston @ Seattle U +5.4 138.5 72% 63–78 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Lamar -10.2 141.0 19% 85–82 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Presbyterian +0.6 132.4 56% 68–67 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ North Carolina A&T +3.9 145.9 63% 84–64 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Stetson -2.1 141.1 40% 95–113 ✗
Little Rock @ App State +10.6 137.5 86% 57–72 ✓
VCU @ Richmond +0.9 132.7 52% 64–62 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Denver -6.0 152.7 27% 89–80 ✓
Northeastern @ Charleston +5.7 147.5 73% 63–81 ✓
Elon @ William & Mary -2.8 140.6 42% 61–65 ✗
Delaware @ James Madison +0.1 148.3 42% 85–69 ✗
Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois +7.1 145.5 71% 69–63 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Florida +5.9 136.1 73% 72–81 ✓
St. John's @ Villanova +12.6 143.0 86% 62–73 ✓
Illinois @ Northwestern -3.5 146.4 39% 59–56 ✓
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois -7.2 129.5 28% 57–62 ✗
Radford @ Gardner-Webb +8.3 129.4 79% 42–61 ✓
Utah @ Washington +2.0 139.1 64% 73–77 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi Valley State -0.5 144.1 32% 74–68 ✓
Incarnate Word @ SE Louisiana +9.1 148.9 83% 68–78 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Southeast Missouri State +1.6 157.7 58% 77–85 ✓
Morehead State @ Murray State +12.0 139.2 85% 66–77 ✓
Grambling @ Jackson State +4.2 131.0 59% 73–64 ✗
Florida A&M @ Alabama A&M -1.5 129.8 33% 65–60 ✓
Saint Francis @ Mount St. Mary's +6.3 134.8 74% 54–71 ✓
Lipscomb @ North Florida +1.7 149.0 55% 77–74 ✗
UT Arlington @ Texas State +5.3 139.5 71% 53–58 ✓
North Dakota @ South Dakota +12.6 149.5 86% 58–71 ✓
Kent State @ Bowling Green +0.4 146.1 46% 91–83 ✗
Hampton @ Charleston Southern -0.2 132.7 49% 78–74 ✓
North Alabama @ Kennesaw State +8.5 137.8 77% 71–58 ✗
Kentucky @ Kansas +6.0 156.2 71% 80–62 ✗
Mississippi State @ Texas Tech +9.9 143.9 84% 50–76 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M -5.2 143.5 23% 75–74 ✓
Idaho @ Montana State +13.5 151.4 87% 64–70 ✓
Virginia @ Notre Dame +5.7 129.3 66% 65–69 ✓
Yale @ Princeton +4.4 151.3 69% 80–74 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville +12.4 140.5 87% 59–79 ✓
Furman @ Mercer -5.4 142.4 28% 80–50 ✓
Georgia @ Vanderbilt +10.3 141.8 84% 77–85 ✓
UConn @ DePaul -5.9 148.7 29% 57–50 ✓
Rutgers @ Nebraska -2.8 143.8 28% 63–61 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.