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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
44–19 on winners
spread MAE 8.7
63 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+11.4 | 134.7 | 87% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.7 | 151.1 | 20% | 81–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.2 | 137.7 | 61% | 52–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 138.3 | 55% | 69–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.2 | 152.7 | 78% | 85–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 131.5 | 38% | 64–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 139.1 | 73% | 77–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.7 | 145.2 | 55% | 74–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.0 | 137.6 | 69% | 60–62 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 139.3 | 45% | 68–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.7 | 134.5 | 77% | 66–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.3 | 146.5 | 49% | 72–78 | ✗ |
|
|
-9.7 | 140.3 | 19% | 63–49 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 129.8 | 70% | 51–52 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 134.2 | 66% | 73–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 132.8 | 63% | 45–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 133.6 | 47% | 54–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.3 | 144.9 | 21% | 73–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.8 | 145.6 | 42% | 79–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.5 | 134.2 | 91% | 57–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.3 | 154.7 | 36% | 72–94 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.0 | 136.8 | 66% | 66–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+18.5 | 136.1 | 90% | 58–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.1 | 147.1 | 27% | 68–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.8 | 142.8 | 61% | 58–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.7 | 134.8 | 74% | 74–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+25.2 | 157.9 | 91% | 72–104 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 126.2 | 83% | 48–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 133.5 | 75% | 68–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 144.0 | 67% | 59–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 136.5 | 65% | 61–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 141.2 | 86% | 43–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-14.6 | 139.0 | 15% | 73–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.6 | 151.3 | 87% | 56–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 132.2 | 55% | 75–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.3 | 144.3 | 19% | 79–59 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 142.7 | 49% | 81–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.3 | 149.7 | 37% | 78–49 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 138.1 | 72% | 62–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 150.3 | 62% | 74–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.4 | 154.8 | 79% | 78–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.5 | 142.2 | 36% | 60–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 145.2 | 64% | 63–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 136.0 | 48% | 72–78 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.8 | 137.5 | 41% | 55–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.7 | 141.7 | 69% | 63–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 140.7 | 79% | 60–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.0 | 138.2 | 48% | 55–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 153.8 | 71% | 81–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.1 | 139.6 | 87% | 77–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 142.9 | 86% | 70–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.3 | 144.7 | 14% | 72–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 139.4 | 45% | 68–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.2 | 140.6 | 83% | 52–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.3 | 149.6 | 33% | 72–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 142.6 | 50% | 76–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 143.7 | 50% | 66–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.4 | 136.2 | 76% | 70–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.3 | 136.7 | 58% | 62–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 129.5 | 67% | 56–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 130.5 | 64% | 55–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.4 | 140.5 | 35% | 80–82 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.3 | 150.3 | 43% | 84–78 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.