Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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73–34 on winners spread MAE 8.4 107 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northern Kentucky +1.7 136.7 56% 49–59 ✓
Rhode Island @ Dayton +6.4 122.1 72% 51–53 ✓
Fairfield @ Rider -3.5 134.3 37% 76–65 ✓
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +7.4 138.0 75% 51–77 ✓
Niagara @ Siena -2.3 126.2 42% 56–60 ✗
Ohio @ Buffalo +2.6 149.0 59% 74–53 ✗
Akron @ Toledo +11.1 136.3 84% 76–84 ✓
Marist @ Quinnipiac -1.0 141.9 46% 87–94 ✗
Cleveland State @ Wright State +0.5 152.3 52% 71–67 ✗
UNLV @ Colorado State +12.0 143.6 86% 88–74 ✗
San José State @ New Mexico +11.3 153.6 85% 70–86 ✓
Boise State @ Fresno State +1.5 113.1 55% 68–63 ✗
Duke @ Louisville -10.0 142.3 18% 74–65 ✓
LSU @ TCU -6.2 120.2 29% 68–77 ✗
La Salle @ Davidson +17.1 142.9 94% 69–77 ✓
Wichita State @ Tulane +0.6 137.6 52% 66–67 ✓
Georgetown @ Butler +4.3 140.2 65% 53–56 ✓
Miami @ Georgia Tech -3.7 146.0 37% 73–62 ✓
Michigan @ Michigan State +5.7 136.5 70% 67–83 ✓
Lafayette @ Army +7.5 142.9 75% 56–60 ✓
Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina +5.4 138.5 69% 73–66 ✗
East Tennessee State @ VMI +4.7 151.7 67% 79–83 ✓
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -10.5 148.4 17% 75–62 ✓
Oklahoma @ Auburn +9.4 138.4 80% 68–86 ✓
Xavier @ Creighton -2.0 138.4 43% 74–64 ✓
Missouri @ Iowa State +15.2 128.0 92% 50–67 ✓
American University @ Navy +17.8 129.6 95% 45–47 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UTSA -9.9 139.6 19% 73–64 ✓
High Point @ Campbell +6.5 126.8 72% 72–77 ✓
NC State @ North Carolina +9.8 157.1 81% 80–100 ✓
Dartmouth @ Columbia -6.5 140.9 28% 76–63 ✓
UMBC @ Binghamton -0.4 140.2 48% 70–68 ✓
Maine @ Vermont +27.9 130.8 99% 68–81 ✓
Milwaukee @ Youngstown State +7.9 137.7 76% 72–86 ✓
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa +7.7 162.1 76% 64–79 ✓
Saint Louis @ Duquesne -8.7 140.3 21% 77–53 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ St. Bonaventure +6.8 142.4 73% 69–80 ✓
Samford @ Western Carolina -1.4 155.1 45% 74–64 ✓
Drexel @ Towson +7.7 132.9 76% 62–66 ✓
West Virginia @ Arkansas +6.0 142.4 71% 68–77 ✓
Arizona State @ Arizona +27.5 145.1 99% 56–67 ✓
Indiana @ Maryland -2.2 136.5 42% 68–55 ✓
Temple @ SMU +9.6 139.5 81% 61–69 ✓
UT Martin @ Belmont +22.4 150.0 98% 58–87 ✓
Rice @ Southern Miss -6.9 145.3 26% 76–62 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky +2.2 143.9 58% 93–85 ✗
Utah Tech @ Chicago State -3.0 144.3 39% 79–65 ✓
Winthrop @ Longwood +7.7 150.4 76% 88–92 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Florida State +0.3 130.3 51% 85–72 ✗
UIC @ Oakland +15.8 146.2 92% 74–81 ✓
Georgia State @ UL Monroe +0.5 149.0 52% 73–62 ✗
St. Thomas @ Western Illinois +5.7 158.7 70% 52–81 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State +13.2 157.0 89% 76–80 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan +0.1 153.6 50% 75–85 ✓
Western Michigan @ Ball State +11.1 149.0 84% 72–83 ✓
Baylor @ Alabama -3.9 153.4 36% 78–87 ✗
Norfolk State @ South Carolina State -5.6 143.4 31% 87–69 ✓
Howard @ North Carolina Central -2.4 149.3 42% 75–74 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +2.6 147.8 59% 70–63 ✗
Southern @ Alcorn State -0.6 141.8 48% 64–68 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Coppin State +4.3 141.3 65% 64–61 ✗
North Texas @ Louisiana Tech +0.4 124.1 52% 63–62 ✗
Portland State @ Northern Arizona +3.2 134.9 62% 97–76 ✗
Kansas State @ Ole Miss -2.2 125.7 42% 56–67 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Northwestern State -6.7 149.9 27% 76–90 ✗
Sam Houston @ Seattle U +5.4 136.4 69% 63–78 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Lamar -11.1 138.4 16% 85–82 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Presbyterian -0.5 128.1 48% 68–67 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ North Carolina A&T +4.9 145.7 67% 84–64 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Stetson -3.9 140.4 36% 95–113 ✗
Little Rock @ App State +12.2 135.9 87% 57–72 ✓
VCU @ Richmond +1.1 125.9 54% 64–62 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Denver -6.2 151.4 29% 89–80 ✓
Northeastern @ Charleston +8.7 149.1 79% 63–81 ✓
Elon @ William & Mary -2.1 139.7 42% 61–65 ✗
Delaware @ James Madison +0.7 145.0 53% 85–69 ✗
Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois +8.8 139.3 79% 69–63 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Florida +5.0 133.2 68% 72–81 ✓
St. John's @ Villanova +16.8 143.0 94% 62–73 ✓
Illinois @ Northwestern -5.1 149.4 32% 59–56 ✓
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois -7.9 126.2 24% 57–62 ✗
Radford @ Gardner-Webb +10.3 127.5 83% 42–61 ✓
Utah @ Washington +0.4 140.2 51% 73–77 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi Valley State +0.3 153.5 51% 74–68 ✗
Incarnate Word @ SE Louisiana +12.7 147.9 88% 68–78 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Southeast Missouri State +1.6 159.5 56% 77–85 ✓
Morehead State @ Murray State +12.6 134.7 87% 66–77 ✓
Grambling @ Jackson State +7.3 124.8 75% 73–64 ✗
Florida A&M @ Alabama A&M +0.4 121.7 51% 65–60 ✗
Saint Francis @ Mount St. Mary's +7.1 134.5 74% 54–71 ✓
Lipscomb @ North Florida +2.0 150.7 57% 77–74 ✗
UT Arlington @ Texas State +6.4 133.5 72% 53–58 ✓
North Dakota @ South Dakota +13.2 147.7 88% 58–71 ✓
Kent State @ Bowling Green +1.8 145.6 57% 91–83 ✗
Hampton @ Charleston Southern -0.5 132.1 48% 78–74 ✓
North Alabama @ Kennesaw State +9.3 134.9 80% 71–58 ✗
Kentucky @ Kansas +3.2 159.5 61% 80–62 ✗
Mississippi State @ Texas Tech +7.8 135.5 76% 50–76 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M -5.6 146.2 30% 75–74 ✓
Idaho @ Montana State +16.3 153.8 93% 64–70 ✓
Virginia @ Notre Dame +4.4 120.6 65% 65–69 ✓
Yale @ Princeton +4.6 153.3 66% 80–74 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville +13.0 137.5 88% 59–79 ✓
Furman @ Mercer -6.3 144.4 28% 80–50 ✓
Georgia @ Vanderbilt +11.2 138.8 85% 77–85 ✓
UConn @ DePaul -7.9 150.3 24% 57–50 ✓
Rutgers @ Nebraska -1.5 142.6 45% 63–61 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.