Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–22 on winners spread MAE 8.6 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
California @ USC +12.2 129.3 87% 72–79 ✓
UAB @ Marshall -12.4 155.7 13% 81–84 ✗
Charlotte @ Old Dominion +2.6 134.6 59% 52–68 ✓
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount +1.7 131.9 56% 69–65 ✗
Santa Clara @ San Francisco +7.6 151.0 75% 85–88 ✓
UAlbany @ NJIT +0.2 125.7 51% 64–53 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Liberty +5.5 134.0 69% 77–67 ✗
Bellarmine @ Florida Gulf Coast +2.6 146.4 59% 74–63 ✗
Green Bay @ Robert Morris +5.3 136.1 69% 60–62 ✓
South Alabama @ Troy -2.1 139.1 43% 68–77 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Wofford +8.0 125.0 77% 66–85 ✓
Hofstra @ UNC Wilmington -4.4 145.9 35% 72–78 ✗
Houston @ UCF -11.6 138.8 15% 63–49 ✓
Tennessee @ Texas +2.0 125.0 57% 51–52 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama State +7.0 133.8 74% 73–79 ✓
South Florida @ Tulsa +4.7 124.5 66% 45–76 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Riverside +1.5 129.8 55% 54–67 ✓
Nicholls @ Houston Christian -10.3 143.8 17% 73–61 ✓
Tarleton State @ UT Rio Grande Valley -1.4 143.0 45% 79–64 ✓
Pepperdine @ Saint Mary's +22.4 131.3 98% 57–81 ✓
Wake Forest @ Syracuse -2.7 158.9 40% 72–94 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Louisiana +5.7 135.2 70% 66–65 ✗
Evansville @ Missouri State +20.9 130.2 97% 58–72 ✓
Kansas City @ Omaha -6.8 142.9 27% 68–69 ✗
Austin Peay @ Tennessee Tech +5.4 141.7 69% 58–55 ✗
South Carolina @ Texas A&M +8.1 132.6 77% 74–63 ✗
Portland @ Gonzaga +32.0 155.7 100% 72–104 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine +13.9 117.6 90% 48–72 ✓
Florida International @ UTEP +6.9 130.6 74% 68–79 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana +3.7 141.5 63% 59–61 ✓
Grand Canyon @ New Mexico State +2.5 132.1 59% 61–71 ✓
Stanford @ UCLA +15.0 143.5 91% 43–66 ✓
BYU @ Pacific -15.9 135.1 7% 73–76 ✗
Oregon State @ Oregon +12.9 147.5 88% 56–78 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC San Diego +1.6 126.6 56% 75–83 ✓
Weber State @ Sacramento State -7.9 141.4 24% 79–59 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ California Baptist -0.7 140.7 47% 81–77 ✓
Utah State @ Nevada -3.8 152.6 36% 78–49 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Hawai'i +3.8 140.3 64% 62–65 ✓
Cornell @ Brown +5.1 150.8 68% 74–72 ✗
Ohio State @ Purdue +10.5 154.9 83% 78–81 ✓
Cincinnati @ East Carolina -5.5 137.9 31% 60–59 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Wright State +4.3 147.4 65% 63–75 ✓
Cleveland State @ Northern Kentucky -1.6 137.0 44% 72–78 ✗
Fordham @ George Washington -2.2 135.8 42% 55–64 ✗
Marquette @ Providence +1.6 140.5 56% 63–65 ✓
Minnesota @ Wisconsin +9.1 135.7 79% 60–66 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Fairleigh Dickinson +1.8 136.8 56% 55–75 ✓
Long Island University @ Bryant +5.3 159.6 69% 81–88 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Iona +11.9 135.5 86% 77–85 ✓
Delaware State @ Morgan State +15.0 140.8 91% 70–82 ✓
Wagner @ St. Francis Brooklyn -13.1 138.3 12% 72–69 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Drake -3.3 138.5 38% 68–77 ✗
Indiana State @ Bradley +8.8 141.6 79% 52–67 ✓
George Mason @ Massachusetts -2.6 152.7 40% 72–62 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Siena -0.1 140.4 50% 76–85 ✗
Marist @ Manhattan -3.1 145.5 39% 66–72 ✗
Niagara @ Monmouth +8.8 129.7 79% 70–69 ✗
Canisius @ Rider +1.8 138.4 57% 62–70 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Boston College +5.3 123.9 68% 56–69 ✓
Valparaiso @ Southern Illinois +5.9 122.4 70% 55–77 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell -4.7 142.3 33% 80–82 ✗
LSU New Orleans @ McNeese +1.6 150.4 56% 84–78 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.