We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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92–22 on winners spread MAE 9.1 114 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Temple @ Cincinnati +3.0 136.7 67% 69–71 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Campbell +3.2 139.1 62% 49–64 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ VCU +2.2 133.5 69% 64–67 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UAlbany +3.1 140.7 60% 79–71 ✗
Tulane @ UCF +3.6 131.4 64% 49–53 ✓
Merrimack @ Central Connecticut -1.6 132.1 41% 72–52 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wright State +16.0 148.9 89% 81–92 ✓
Oakland @ Robert Morris +0.1 153.0 50% 82–88 ✓
Winthrop @ Radford -2.4 139.4 35% 55–47 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Alabama -4.2 134.9 26% 66–64 ✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville -2.4 132.9 38% 60–66 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ UTSA +1.5 144.9 65% 80–84 ✓
Akron @ Miami (OH) -2.8 144.6 38% 83–76 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Bakersfield +9.6 136.9 84% 71–76 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Riverside +2.5 129.7 49% 65–86 ✓
UAB @ Louisiana Tech +0.9 133.6 58% 58–70 ✓
Western Michigan @ Buffalo +13.5 143.8 86% 54–86 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Clemson +3.1 132.8 65% 72–74 ✓
Omaha @ Kansas City +8.4 122.3 78% 52–62 ✓
Denver @ Western Illinois +7.3 150.9 76% 69–75 ✓
Rice @ Western Kentucky +7.5 146.3 81% 71–77 ✓
North Texas @ Southern Miss -6.9 126.4 19% 65–49 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +10.6 149.0 86% 72–87 ✓
Little Rock @ Arkansas State +0.7 142.6 58% 62–73 ✓
Illinois @ Nebraska -12.1 147.2 18% 77–72 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State +2.7 140.8 65% 89–83 ✗
Florida International @ UTEP +8.7 145.1 84% 59–75 ✓
New Mexico State @ Seattle U +0.6 138.5 47% 72–83 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Hawai'i -3.3 137.1 33% 59–50 ✓
Indiana @ Ohio State +6.2 142.7 75% 59–78 ✓
Wake Forest @ Florida State +9.3 139.1 84% 85–92 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Drake +1.1 128.6 60% 81–54 ✗
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State +12.8 138.9 86% 60–67 ✓
UConn @ Xavier +3.1 134.3 63% 80–72 ✗
UIC @ IU Indianapolis +2.2 142.4 69% 81–88 ✓
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +5.8 154.2 78% 66–70 ✓
Oklahoma @ West Virginia +3.6 142.5 65% 91–90 ✗
Canisius @ Quinnipiac -0.6 142.0 43% 89–70 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State +6.8 138.0 71% 72–51 ✗
Auburn @ Kentucky +1.2 148.3 60% 80–82 ✓
Samford @ VMI +4.3 154.9 67% 56–85 ✓
Northeastern @ Towson -2.9 136.7 38% 76–67 ✓
Elon @ Charleston +5.6 131.8 70% 53–71 ✓
Butler @ Georgetown +2.7 132.6 61% 63–78 ✓
TCU @ Texas +9.7 143.1 84% 55–70 ✓
Tennessee @ LSU +0.7 143.4 63% 65–78 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lafayette +3.3 141.8 65% 94–97 ✓
Boston University @ Holy Cross +1.2 142.0 61% 65–82 ✓
Stony Brook @ Vermont +9.5 136.0 83% 78–86 ✓
NJIT @ Hartford +2.9 134.2 59% 67–57 ✗
Boston College @ Syracuse +9.1 151.0 85% 67–75 ✓
Norfolk State @ Morgan State +6.3 149.4 68% 74–69 ✗
Oregon @ Arizona +2.7 139.9 67% 63–61 ✗
Bowling Green @ Toledo +9.3 158.4 80% 88–81 ✗
Western Carolina @ Furman +11.1 148.7 86% 70–88 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer -1.5 143.4 40% 77–74 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Kent State +16.7 140.0 90% 58–80 ✓
Hofstra @ James Madison +3.0 144.7 65% 89–93 ✓
Idaho @ Idaho State +10.7 126.8 83% 58–64 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana State -2.0 151.1 35% 85–69 ✓
Iowa @ Michigan State -7.5 152.0 33% 88–58 ✓
Sacramento State @ California Baptist +1.2 148.7 43% 71–83 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UAlbany +3.1 140.6 63% 69–81 ✓
Fresno State @ Air Force -3.7 124.3 28% 67–64 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wright State +15.7 148.6 89% 82–92 ✓
UT Arlington @ Texas State +6.2 128.7 65% 68–79 ✓
Kansas @ Iowa State -12.3 142.3 17% 64–50 ✓
Georgia @ Alabama +11.5 157.2 86% 82–115 ✓
Saint Louis @ Fordham -14.4 127.2 14% 68–40 ✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota -6.1 146.1 31% 76–85 ✗
Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -6.1 134.2 23% 73–71 ✓
Arkansas @ Missouri -0.5 151.7 51% 86–81 ✓
Stetson @ Kennesaw State -5.2 133.3 28% 75–83 ✗
Colgate @ Army -6.5 148.0 27% 84–74 ✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois +3.5 136.9 67% 80–55 ✗
Duke @ NC State +0.4 143.6 54% 69–53 ✗
UAB @ Louisiana Tech +0.9 132.8 59% 64–69 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Marshall +14.5 148.0 88% 85–96 ✓
Charlotte @ Old Dominion +3.7 128.2 66% 45–64 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UTSA +1.2 145.3 60% 75–86 ✓
Texas Southern @ Grambling -2.3 139.2 35% 75–73 ✓
Wofford @ East Tennessee State +2.9 138.2 67% 49–71 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +5.8 153.8 78% 76–78 ✓
Weber State @ Montana -1.2 142.4 40% 91–82 ✓
Villanova @ Creighton +0.9 143.0 57% 70–86 ✓
Northwestern @ Rutgers +6.0 138.8 80% 50–64 ✓
Manhattan @ Iona +9.4 131.3 84% 77–70 ✗
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +9.2 129.0 77% 55–50 ✗
McNeese @ Northwestern State +6.2 148.0 70% 66–69 ✓
South Dakota State @ Oral Roberts -0.7 156.2 42% 86–103 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +5.5 147.5 71% 70–72 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -0.9 144.2 45% 71–66 ✓
Oakland @ Robert Morris +0.0 153.5 52% 86–81 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Jacksonville State +8.8 141.9 81% 60–80 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Tennessee State -7.0 152.2 25% 93–73 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech -0.2 136.6 46% 67–80 ✗
Morehead State @ Belmont +8.2 140.6 81% 58–73 ✓
North Florida @ Liberty +12.8 135.5 86% 60–80 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Abilene Christian +19.7 136.4 90% 55–83 ✓
South Alabama @ Troy -1.6 134.1 40% 58–51 ✓
Louisiana @ UL Monroe -2.5 136.8 36% 88–72 ✓
North Texas @ Southern Miss -6.9 125.0 19% 68–56 ✓
Alcorn State @ Mississippi Valley State -12.4 137.3 13% 70–56 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alabama State -3.9 135.5 37% 58–72 ✗
Gonzaga @ San Francisco -13.2 153.1 18% 100–61 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia +7.1 121.9 76% 48–60 ✓
Bradley @ Missouri State +2.6 132.6 67% 58–80 ✓
Ole Miss @ South Carolina -1.6 136.8 45% 81–74 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Austin Peay +7.2 136.2 71% 63–78 ✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville -2.4 132.1 39% 71–69 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Sam Houston +10.7 151.6 86% 57–97 ✓
Arkansas State @ Little Rock +6.1 142.9 66% 67–65 ✗
Lamar @ Houston Christian +2.7 146.1 62% 75–80 ✓
Rice @ Western Kentucky +7.9 145.3 80% 66–89 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.