Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MORG -150 NORF +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | MORG -6.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -6.6 (-11.6) | 153.2 (-10.2) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -6.3 (-11.3) | 149.4 (-6.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -6.0 (-11.0) | 155.0 (-12.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -6.1 (-11.1) | 153.1 (-10.1) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | MORG 90 – 84 NORF |
| Jan 27, 2026 | MORG 79 – 78 NORF |
| Mar 14, 2025 | NORF 58 – 55 MORG |
| Feb 25, 2025 | NORF 69 – 60 MORG |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MORG 78 – 74 NORF |
Game Analysis
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