Betting Lines
| Spread | VMI -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | VMI -250 SAM +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +29 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | VMI -6.6 (+22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (-21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -4.9 (+24.1) | 156.4 (-15.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VMI -4.3 (+24.7) | 154.9 (-13.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VMI -5.1 (+23.9) | 154.7 (-13.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -5.0 (+24.0) | 156.4 (-15.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | SAM 80 – 61 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SAM 78 – 58 VMI |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SAM 95 – 83 VMI |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SAM 81 – 68 VMI |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SAM 102 – 63 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-12 | 6-13 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 2-9 |
| Home | 11-1 | 4-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#156) | -3.4 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#185) | -0.76 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#188) | -0.69 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#184) | 0.462 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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