Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU +150 DUKE -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +16 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -2.2 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-30.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -2.5 (-18.5) | 149.4 (-27.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -0.4 (-16.4) | 143.6 (-21.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -2.2 (-18.2) | 149.8 (-27.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -2.3 (-18.3) | 150.9 (-28.9) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | DUKE 93 – 64 NCSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 64 NCSU |
| Mar 31, 2024 | NCSU 76 – 64 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2024 | NCSU 74 – 69 DUKE |
| Mar 5, 2024 | DUKE 79 – 64 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 9-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#79) | 7.9 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#138) | 0.86 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#118) | 1.80 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#173) | 0.508 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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