Betting Lines
| Spread | JXST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | JXST -450 SIUE +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JXST +20 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | JXST -10.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JXST -9.1 (+10.9) | 143.0 (-3.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JXST -8.8 (+11.2) | 141.9 (-1.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JXST -9.9 (+10.1) | 141.6 (-1.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JXST -8.7 (+11.3) | 142.5 (-2.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JXST | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-9 | 9-17 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 7-12 |
| Home | 8-3 | 2-8 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#185) | -9.0 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#166) | -1.40 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#183) | -1.89 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#140) | 0.449 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JXST | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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