Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | HC +240 BU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +17 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | HC -2.4 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -2.0 (+15.0) | 142.4 (+4.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -1.2 (+15.8) | 142.0 (+5.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -2.5 (+14.5) | 142.8 (+4.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HC -2.1 (+14.9) | 142.9 (+4.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | BU 78 – 63 HC |
| Feb 3, 2026 | BU 72 – 64 HC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HC 72 – 52 BU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | BU 69 – 59 HC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BU 94 – 84 HC |
Game Analysis
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