Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | IDST -500 IDHO +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +6 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -13.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -10.8 (-4.8) | 128.7 (-6.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -10.7 (-4.7) | 126.8 (-4.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -11.1 (-5.1) | 129.0 (-7.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -11.9 (-5.9) | 129.7 (-7.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | IDHO 99 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | IDST 76 – 68 IDHO |
| Feb 28, 2025 | IDST 69 – 65 IDHO |
| Feb 1, 2025 | IDST 87 – 71 IDHO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | IDHO 55 – 53 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 1-21 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 1-17 |
| Home | 8-3 | 1-9 |
| Away | 5-5 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#267) | -16.8 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#261) | -4.61 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#285) | -6.23 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#252) | 0.348 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 24.9% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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