Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | NEB +900 ILL -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +5 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -16.1 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -13.1 (+8.1) | 146.7 (+2.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -12.1 (+7.1) | 147.2 (+1.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -12.1 (+7.1) | 147.5 (+1.5) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -13.2 (+8.2) | 146.5 (+2.5) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | ILL 78 – 69 NEB |
| Dec 13, 2025 | NEB 83 – 80 ILL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | NEB 80 – 74 ILL |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ILL 98 – 87 NEB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ILL 87 – 84 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-20 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 3-16 | 16-4 |
| Home | 6-9 | 11-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#138) | 20.4 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#221) | 2.97 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#187) | 4.39 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#227) | 0.607 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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