Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | TOW +138 NE -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +9 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | NE -5.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -4.7 (-4.3) | 138.6 (+4.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NE -2.9 (-6.1) | 136.7 (+6.3) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -4.4 (-4.6) | 138.3 (+4.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NE -4.2 (-4.8) | 138.5 (+4.5) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | TOW 87 – 78 NE |
| Jan 28, 2025 | TOW 75 – 65 NE |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TOW 80 – 73 NE |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TOW 83 – 76 NE |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NE 67 – 59 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-14 | 10-9 |
| Conference | 3-9 | 8-2 |
| Home | 4-4 | 5-1 |
| Away | 0-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#276) | 1.1 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#287) | 0.84 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#280) | 0.76 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#303) | 0.585 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 5.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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