Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UAPB +275 SOU -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -7.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -6.0 (+4.0) | 134.5 (+9.5) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -6.1 (+4.1) | 134.2 (+9.8) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -5.1 (+3.1) | 138.5 (+5.5) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -6.0 (+4.0) | 134.3 (+9.7) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SOU 84 – 81 UAPB |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UAPB 75 – 74 SOU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SOU 83 – 67 UAPB |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SOU 80 – 66 UAPB |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UAPB 62 – 55 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-21 | 8-11 |
| Conference | 3-12 | 8-6 |
| Home | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Away | 2-17 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.0 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -19.4 (#345) | -9.0 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.71 (#332) | -1.98 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.53 (#338) | -2.71 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#331) | 0.429 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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